Ever since I started flying, I’ve been hearing anecdotal evidence that the 200 hour mark is a pilots career is one of the most dangerous.
I’ve spent a few hours trying to find hard evidence of such and cant find any data that supports this claim.
Does anyone have any ideas where I can find information from reputable sources (NASA, TC, AOPA, COPA, etc..) that shows data and explains why 200 hours is such a precarious milestone in a pilots career? (I think there is another one at 1,500 hours too)
Blake, have a look at The Killing Zone: How and Why Pilots Die, by Paul A. Craig, 2001. Lots of NTSB data covering the 1993-2000 timeframe.
I’ve been able to find stats from the NTSB here:
http://www.ntsb.gov/publictn/A_Stat.htm
I think I can! I think I can! Ooops!
A superior pilot uses his or her superior intellect to avoid a situation that requires his or her superior skill.
The 200 hour barrier is where a pilot decides whether they do not have to follow the best practices that they have been taught.
Do it right – the first time – you will be safe.
Favourable tailwinds.
Rick
My suspicion is that most of the 200 hour situations are more in the “this is really bad…” category with the potential to be fatal. You end up scaring yourself and/or your pax to death, but don’t end up as an official stat.
Just because there is no hard data to support a claim, doesn’t mean its not real. I would recommend erring on the side of acting as if it is real so that you are alive to gripe about how it wasn’t.
Peace.
WES
Wes,
There are indeed hard numbers to prove this. Take a look at the latest report from the NTSB:
http://www.ntsb.gov/publictn/2007/ARG0701.pdf
Page 24 (of the PDF) the majority of the accidents recorded where by pilots 0-200 hours. After 200 hours the accident rate decreases.